The world of SEO is in a state of flux. Google’s AI advancements are reshaping the landscape, leaving many to wonder if the days of traditional organic SEO are numbered. At MozCon’s 20th annual conference, Tom Capper, Moz’s Senior Search Scientist, delivered a sobering assessment of the current state and future of SEO. His insights and warnings shed light on the challenges ahead and offer strategic pivots for those willing to adapt.
The AI Disruption in SEO
Google’s AI features are significantly disrupting organic SEO, particularly for informational searches. Capper highlighted the rise of search intents—informational, navigational, commercial, and transactional queries—and how Google’s new AI Overview feature is changing the game. This feature, which generates direct answers at the top of the page, has proven particularly disruptive for informational searches.
The Zero-Click Threat
Capper emphasized the growing threat of zero-click searches. He noted that informational searches have the lowest share of voice for traditional organic results due to AI Overviews and other SERP features. In fact, 21% of informational searches now surface a Featured Snippet result, satisfying users without a click.
“Organic is a really tough game for informational intent,” Capper stated, illustrating how challenging it has become to rank for these types of queries. He bluntly added, “You basically can’t play at the top of the funnel.”
AI Overviews: A Potential Mistake
In an exclusive interview with Search Engine Journal, Capper cautioned that Google’s rush to implement AI overviews could negatively impact the company’s brand image. The aggressive monetization of search results and evolving search intents are creating an increasingly difficult environment for businesses relying on organic SEO.
The Commercial Battleground
While the data looks bleak for informational content, commercial searches present a “sweet spot” with potential opportunities. However, Capper described these mid-funnel queries as a “turbulent” and “incredibly contested” battleground. The competition is fierce, with major sites like Amazon, Reddit, and YouTube dominating the commercial results alongside a plethora of price listings and review-rich results.
“Commercial is where a lot of this [Google’s search quality issues] plays out…it’s become an incredibly volatile section,” Capper said. He advised focusing on less competitive verticals like arts, hobbies, and real estate, which offer more realistic chances for smaller sites to compete.
Capper warned publishers who rely solely on easily answered questions: “If that’s what you’ve been doing, you’ve probably been suffering for a long time…If you’re not willing to pivot to any other kind of content, then yeah, sure, go. Find a different channel.”
The Paid and Local Future
At the bottom of the funnel, transactional searches have become “pay-to-play” unless you’re a brick-and-mortar business. Google’s monetization of product listings and experimental map embeds for transactional queries continue to squeeze out organic visibility.
However, Capper highlighted local SEO as a promising path forward. “If you can do well in local search, I think even in a worst-case scenario AI Overview rollout, you would still be doing well here,” he stated.
Adapting to the Changing Landscape
Despite the challenges posed by AI-powered search features, Capper believes there are still opportunities for organic marketing success. He offered several recommendations for adapting to the changing landscape:
- Target Informational Queries Without Featured Snippets: Focus on informational queries that don’t have a featured snippet, allowing for better organic visibility.
- Focus on Less Competitive Commercial Queries: Look for commercial queries in verticals like arts, hobbies, and real estate, which are less competitive.
- Leverage Local Search Optimization: Optimize for local search, even for businesses without a brick-and-mortar presence.
- Use Keyword Modifiers: Incorporate modifiers like “best,” “compare,” “top,” and “reviews” to identify commercial intent queries.
Looking to the Future
When asked for advice for SEO professionals who may be disheartened by the AI search revolution, Capper suggested adapting and focusing on creating high-quality, authoritative content. “If you’ve got any willingness at all to write something more interesting, then I think you can still play an organic,” he stated.
Ultimately, Capper remains optimistic about the future of organic search. He believes Google’s business model depends on sending organic traffic to other sites. “I don’t think Google will ever reach the point where Google doesn’t send traffic at all because, ultimately, that’s its business model. People expect when they search Google that they will end up going to other websites; if people don’t have that expectation, they won’t click on ads; if people aren’t clicking on ads, Google doesn’t make any money,” he explained.
In Summary
While informational and transactional searches have become challenging to rank for organically, Capper’s research suggests there are still opportunities in commercial and local spaces. To adapt, he recommends focusing on less competitive commercial topics, leveraging local SEO for transactional queries, and creating content beyond simply answering basic questions. By pivoting strategies and embracing new tactics, businesses can navigate the evolving SEO landscape and continue to achieve success.